简介:MM5,它是PSU/NCAR中央放大非静水力学的有限区域的模型,并且它毗连当模特儿的系统在这篇论文被使用。由使用二假数据吸收的台风的一个最佳的起始的条件策划的作者产生的背景回答的拿的T106分析数据,和某数字模仿试验的行为。No.9608typhoon(葛洛丽亚)的结果证明最佳的起始的地有一些戏剧的改进,例如台风中心,更弱的台风发行量和台风的不完全的内部结构的不精密的位置,它被数据的缺乏在海上引起。一些改进在轨道预报被做了。通过几个比较实验,BDAscheme优化的初始化比GFDL计划和它的台风路经预报更好被发现更合理。
简介:Threetyphooncasesareselectedtoconductaseriesofsimulationsthatareinitializedfromsequentialanalyses.Theresultsshowthattheforecasterrorincrucialareawhereatropicalcyclone(TC)interacteswiththeupstreamtroughishighlycorrelatedtothetrackforecasterroraftertheTCrecurvature.Furthermore,sensitivityexperimentsconfirmthatthedevelopmentsofthemidlatitudedownstreamcirculationsandthentheTCtrackafteritsrecurvaturearehighlysensitivetotheTCintensityanditslocationrelativetotheupstreamtrough,whichcangiveanexampleoronewayofsensitivityoftheTCtracktotheTC-troughinteraction.IftheTCinteractswiththeupstreamtroughmorestrongly(e.g.,theTCbeingintensifiedorgettingclosertotheupstreamtrough),thedownstreamcirculationswillbemoremeridional,thustheTCtrackwillbemorenortherlyandwesterly;otherwise,thedownstreamcirculationswillbemorezonal,andtheTCtrackwillbemoresoutherlyandeasterly.
简介:台风Haitang(0505)的轨道,通过了台湾岛并且再登陆了,被使用非静水力学的mesoscale成功地模仿了大气的模型MM5。Itsstructure在登陆阶段上被分析,并且在那里存在,被发现好在thetyphoon之间的关系反常移动轨道和它的不对称现象结构。thetyphoonHaitang上的台湾岛的地面的效果,它让它在登陆前旋转并且介绍“V”打反常动人的轨道inTaiwan海峡,也被模仿了。进一步的分析证明台湾岛的地面不onlydirectly影响移动轨道的台风,而且由影响它的asymmetricstructure改变台风轨道。因此,台风不对称的结构和在反常旋转的台湾岛togetherresults的地面的效果追踪。台湾岛的地面趋于增加台风的SW-NEasymmetric结构并且在从台湾海峡进入并且移动前在台风Haitang的thelandfall过程期间在SE-NW不对称的结构上有不同效果。
简介:Aseriesof96-htyphoontrackpredictionexperimentswerecarriedoutusingmediumrangeforecastingsystemofNMCbyaddingBOGUStyphoon(simplifiedasB-TC)intothefirstguessfieldortheanalysisfieldinordertoprovidelongertimetyphoontrackforecast.TheresultsshowthatT106L19couldprovideabetterforecasttotyphoontrackswhentheB-TCwasadded,especiallywhenthetyphoonvortexisevenweaker.ThesensitiveexperimentsonwheretoaddtheB-TCshowthattheresultsfromaddingtheB-TCintothefirstguessfieldarebetter.TheresultsalsoshowthattheinitializationsmoothestheB-TCalotandthiswillaffectthetyphoontrackprediction.
简介:TheGRAPES-TCMisusedtomakeensemblepredictionexperimentsfortyphoontrack.Threekindsofensembleschemesaredesignedfortheexperiments.Atotalof109experimentsaremadefortheninetyphoonsin2011andtheintegraltimeis72h.Theexperimentresultsareshownasfollows.Inthethreeensembleschemes,onthewhole,scheme1hasthebesttrackprediction.Itsaverageabsolutetrackerrorandoveralldeviationsoftyphoonmovingspeedandmovingdirectionareallthesmallestinthethreeschemes.Forbothscheme1andscheme2,theyareallsmallerthanthoseoftheircontrolpredictions.Bothoftheirensemblepredictionsshowsuperioritytotheirdeterministicpredictions.Overall,comparedwiththeobservations,thetyphoonmovingdirectionsofthethreeschemesmainlyskewtotheright,andinthelateintegrationtheymainlytendtoberelativelyslow.Inthethreeschemes,thetrackdispersionofscheme1isthelargestandthatofscheme3thesmallest.Inscheme1itismuchlargerthaninschemes2and3.Thedifferenceofdispersionbetweenscheme2andscheme3issmall.Thetrackdispersionsofthethreeschemesareallmuchsmallerthantheirrationaldispersions.Comparedwiththeeightdomesticandoverseasoperationalnumericalweatherprediction(NWP)models,scheme1hasbetterpredictionsthantheothersevenoperationalmodelsexceptECMWFNWPmodel.Scheme1hasthevalueofoperationalapplication.
简介:Itisgenerallythoughtthattheinfluenceofcomparabletracktyphoonsisapproximatelysimilar,butinfacttheirwindandespeciallytheirrainstormdistributionareoftenverydifferent.Therefore,acontrastiveanalysisofrainstormsbytropicalcyclones(TCs)Haitang(0505)andBilis(0604),whichareofasimilartrack,isdesignedtohelpunderstandthemechanismoftheTCrainstormandtoimproveforecastingskills.ThedailyrainfallofTCHaitang(0505)andBilis(0604)isdiagnosedandcompared.TheresultindicatesthatthesetwoTCshavesimilarprecipitationdistributionbeforelandfallbutdifferentprecipitationcharacteristicsafterlandfall.UsingNCEP/GFSanalysisdata,thesynopticsituationisanalyzed;watervaportransportationisdiscussedregardingthecalculatedwatervaporfluxanddivergence.TheresultsshowthattheheavyrainfallintheZhejiangandFujianProvincesassociatedwithHaitang(0505)andBilis(0604)beforelandfallresultsfromaperipheraleasterlywind,acombinationofthetropicalcycloneandtheterrain.Afterlandfallandmovingfarinlandofthestorm,theprecipitationofHaitangiscausedbywatervaporconvergencecarriedbyitsowncirculation;itismuchweakerthanthatinthecoastalarea.OneoftheimportantcontributingfactorstoheavyrainstormsinsoutheastZhejiangisasoutheastjetstream,whichismaintainedoverthesoutheastcoast.Incontrast,theSouthChinaSeamonsooncirculationtransportslargeamountsofwatervaporintoBilis–whenawater-vaportransportbeltsouthofthetropicalcyclonesignificantlystrengthens–whichstrengthensthetransport.Then,itcauseswatervaporfluxtoconvergeonthesouthsideofBilisanddivergeonthenorthside.Precipitationismuchstrongeronthesouthsidethanthatonthenorthside.AfterBilistravelsfarinland,thecoldairguidedbyanorthtroughtravelsintotheTCandremarkablyenhancesprecipitation.Insummary,combiningverticalwindshearwithwatervaportransportationis
简介:用有1.875X1-875的决定的T63L16分析数据,纬度和经度的度从国家气象学的中心(NMC)和热带气旋的真实中央位置信息获得了(此后叫作TC)由NMC数了,在在1996的25TC的126个次层次的基本环境因地球自转而引起的流动是计算的。流动的竖直分布特征被分析。而且,真实TC的偏差从流动追踪(作为也就是,此后驾驶偏差参考了在TC的真实中央位置和根据驾驶计算的位置之间的偏差流动)也被调查。如果领域过去常推测驾驶流动是不同的,结果证明驾驶偏差将是不同的。现在的纸获得最佳领域尺寸计算驾驶流动。驾驶偏差与自己驾驶TC的流动和起始的纬度和紧张的速度有关,这被发现,并且那个TC运动与vertical有关系砍环境因地球自转而引起的流动的结构。结果也证明驾驶流动的最佳是从1000hPa的深层的平均基本流动到200hPa。有原则和特征将帮助做TC运动的精确预报的这些的知识。
简介:ThisstudyexaminestheeffectsofcumulusparameterizationsandmicrophysicsschemesonthetrackforecastoftyphoonNabiusingtheWeatherResearchForecastmodel.ThestudyfoundthattheeffectsofcumulusparameterizationsontyphoontrackforecastwerecomparativelystrongandthetyphoontrackforecastofKain-Fritsch(KF)wassuperiortothatofBetts-Miller(BM).WhenKFwasselected,thesimulatedresultswouldbeimprovedifmicrophysicsschemeswereselectedthanotherwise.TheresultsfromFerrier,WSM6,andLinwereveryclosetothoseinthebesttrack.KFperformedwellwiththesimulationsofthewesternextensionandeasterncontractionchangesofaNorthPacifichighaswellasthedistributionandstrengthofthetyphoonwindfield.
简介:到一架飞机上的起始的内部核心的结构的TC增强和轨道的敏感用一个数字模型被调查。结果证明有大内部核心的风(CVEX终止)的旋涡与小内部核心的风(CCAVE终止)比那经历更早的增强,但是他们将近在旋转起来以后有一样的增强率。在早阶段,与表面热流动联系的对流房间主要在CVEX终止在内部核心的区域以内被限制,而在CCAVE终止的旋涡与大多数由于效果在外部核心的区域被开始到东北的对流旋涡展出更加不对称的结构。在CVEX终止的大内部核心的惯性的稳定性能从到动能的对流加热在变换推动高效率。另外,在在主要eyewall外面的内部核心的区域的许多更强壮的拉紧变丑和PBL不平衡比在CCAVE终止,它在CVEX-EXP.对快速的axisymmetrization和早增强导致在CVEX终止的TC轨道在整个集成支撑向西北的排水量的在CVEX终止在起始的发展阶段期间续起,而当不对称的结构是主导的时,在CCAVE终止的TC经历向东北的反弯。由于到在CCAVE终止的TC中心的东北的提高的不对称的传送对流,一双第二等的旋回在大规模主要旋回形式以内嵌入,它调制通风流动并且因此驾驶TC移动向东北。
简介:TyphoonMegi,the13thtyphoonofthe2010typhoonseason,wasselectedforcasestudybyutilizingtheWeatherResearchandForecasting(WRF)model.Twelvesensitivityexperimentswithvariousinitialtropicalcyclone(TC)intensitiesandsizeswereconductedtoinvestigatetheirimpactsonthesimulationoftyphoontrack.InteractionbetweenTCandthewesternPacificsubtropicalhigh(WPSH)wasalsoanalyzedtoexplorethemechanismfortheimpactonTCtrackoftheinitialTCintensityandsize.NumericalresultsindicatethatthesimulatedTCsizeandTCtrackaresensitivetoinitialTCintensityandsize.StrongerinitialTCintensityandlargerinitialTCsizeoftenleadtolargersimulatedTCsizeandmakeTCturnnorthwardearlier.Furtheranalysissuggeststhat,withtheincreaseofinitialTCintensityandsize,moreairmassentersintotheTCregion,whichsubsequentlyreducestheextentofWPSH.Asaresult,thesteeringflowchangessignificantlyandeventuallycausestheTCtoturnnorthwardearlier.ThepresentstudyconfirmsthattheinitialTCintensityandsizehavecertaininfluencesontheTCtracksimulation,whichdemonstratestheimportanceofaccurateinitialconditionforsuccessfulsimulationoftheTCintensityandTCtrack.Moreover,italsodeepensourunderstandingoftheinteractionbetweenTCandWPSH,provideshelpfulcluesfortheTCtrackchangestudy,anddiscussesthefuturedirectionsforimprovementofTCtrackforecast.
简介:Inthispaper,wefirstanalyzedclouddriftwind(CDW)datadistributionintheverticaldirection,andthenreassignedtheheightofeveryCDWintheresearchdomainintermsofbackgroundinformation,andfinally,conductedcontrastnumericalexperimentsofassimilatingtheCDWdatabeforeandafterreassignmenttoexaminetheimpactsontheforecastofthetrackofTyphoonChanthu(1003)from00:00(CoordinatedUniversalTime)21Julyto00:00UTC23July,2010.TheanalysisresultsoftheCDWdataindicatethatthenumberofCDWsismainlydistributedinthemidandupper-troposphereabove500hPa,withthemaximumnumberatabout300hPa.Theheightreassigningmethodmentionedinthisworkmayupdatetheheighteffectively,andtheCDWdataaredistributedreasonablyandnoobviouscontradictionoccursinthehorizontaldirectionafterheightreassignment.Afterassimilatingtheheight-reassignedCDWdata,especiallythewatervaporCDWdata,theinitialwindfieldaroundTyphoonChanthu(1003)becamemorereasonable,andthenthesteeringcurrentleadingthetyphoontomovetothecorrectlocationbecamestronger.Asaresult,thenumericaltrackpredictionsareimproved.