简介:一个大问题在世界上影响大多数这些国家的Desertification过程。这个过程在干旱、半干旱的区域有高率。今天,人的社会作为引起各种各样的不可弥补的损坏到经济、社会的部门的一个严重问题正在遇到desertification现象。为了在另一个区域为他们的申请在不同地区性的模型的生产估计desertification结果,索引应该是re-investigated并且适应本地条件。几个模型为desertification评估被开发了。现在的学习,估计desertification过程在一个区域有的份量上的尝试在伊朗平凡的Sistan定位了(是的Niatak区域案例研究)由使用修改MEDALUS方法。获得的结果显示了整个学习区域的(包括4819.6英亩),2651.56英亩(55%)位于中等desertification紧张班,1269.48英亩(26.34%)在严重desertification紧张班上被放,并且898.54英亩(18.64%)被放在改变严重desertification紧张班。
简介:Earthquakesareaseriousnaturaldisasterfacedbycountriesallovertheworld.ResearchonearthquakehazardmitigationareimportantpartsofearthquakescienceandisafeatureofChina'sdevelopmentofearthquakescience.Inrecentyears,theMinistryofScienceandTechnology(MOST)ofthePeople'sRepublicofChina,theNationalNaturalScienceFoundationofChina(NSFC)andtheChinaEarthquakeAdministration(CEA)haveattachedgreatimportancetobasicresearchonearthquakehazardmitigation,andnewopportunitiesandchallengeshaveemerged.ThispapercollectstheapplicationsandapprovalsoftheNationalKeyR&DProgramandtheNSFCprojectsundertakenbytheresearchinstitutesoftheCEAsysteminrecentyears.TheCEAsystemhasreceivedfundinginthe13th“Five-yearPlan”for“Monitoring,EarlyWarningandPreventionofMajorNaturalDisaster”.TheimplementationoftheseprojectsisexpectedtoprovidesupportforthebasicscienceandappliedresearchoftheCEAsystem.IntheNSFC,thenumberofapplicationsfromtheCEAsystemisrelativelystable,andthefundingrateisslightlyhigherthantheaverageforthedepartmentofearthscience.Althoughnodetailedstatisticalanalysishasbeenperformed,theCEAsystemstillhasroomforimprovementintheapplicationoftalentandmajorprograms.Ihopethatthebriefreviewofnewopportunitiesthathavearoseinrecentyearsdescribedinthisarticlecanprovidesomebackgroundandnewthinkingforfuturechallenges.
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简介:学习强壮的运动记录和摇晃扎根的空间分发在在地震理解损坏的内在的原因是很重要的。在世界上的Manyregions不是instrumented或是稀疏地instrumented。因此,为运动损坏关联的重要机会被失去。二最近、损坏的地震属于失去的机会的班,也就是2005年10月和theYogyakarta(印度尼西亚)的克什米尔(巴基斯坦)地震2006年5月的地震。在这篇论文,在地震受灾的区域的供应和需求研究的重要性的概述被给,由地震学在重建瞄准了的研究工程的二个例子列在后面从稀少的数据的危险。纸与一个请求关门让负责的当局在不久的将来在地震监视投资网络。
简介:TheprimarygoalofthedemonstrationprojectendorsedbytheScientificandTechnicalCommitteeforIDNDRin1992istoensurethatnationalagenciesareabletoassessseismichazardinaregionallycoordinatedfashionbyusingadvancedmethods.China,asaRegionalCenterofCentralSouthernAsia,hascontactedwithcountriesoftheregiontorealisticallypracticeseismichazardassessmentsofContinentalAsia.AtestarealocatedinthecollisionboundarybetweentheIndianandEurasianplateswaschosentoexaminetheseismichazardassessmentapproachintheregionalcoordinates.TheseismotectonicsandthreeversionsofseismicsourcesofthetestareaaredescribedinthispaperandundertheGlobalSeismicHazardAssessmentProgram(GSHAP),guidelinesanearthquakecatalogueofthetestareawasassembled.Becauseoftheincompletenessofearthquakedataindifferentcountries,weadoptdifferenttimewindowsfordifferentmagnitudeintervalsinordertoobtaintheseismicityparametersofsources.Byu
简介:Mansehra的地点地震地位于活跃政体,在NW喜马拉雅山脉作为水晶的越过水坝落下的水地区和Hazara克什米尔Syntaxis知道,巴基斯坦。为这个地点的地震危险评价(SHA)被认为地震是来源地区,适当变细方程的选择,近的差错效果和最大的潜在的大小评价执行了。Mansehra戳,Oghi差错,Banna戳,Balakot砍地区,主要边界戳,Panjal戳,Jhelum差错和Muzaffarabad差错并且,推进到南方,Sanghargali,Nathiagali,和Thandiani戳是在Mansehra的50km半径以内的最批评的构造特征。用从1904~2007的可得到的仪器的地震学上的数据,SHA被执行了。在区域的另外的重新激活的批评构造特征被调查了。与到Poonch的从Balakot的120km的差错长度,在他们之中,Balakot-Bagh差错根据地质/结构/地震学上的数据被看作了最批评的构造特征。7.8用四种回归关系被分到Balakot-Bagh差错的最大的大小的潜在的地震。0.25g(为50年的exceedance的10%概率)和0.5g的山峰地面加速价值用概率、确定的途径在变细方程的帮助下被计算了。
简介:ThispaperselectssomerepresentativeregionstoobtaintheirG-Rrelationcurvesaccordingtotheirseismicitycharacteristics,byusingML≥2.0microseismicitydata(1970~1993)inNorthChina.TheannualoccurrencerateofeventsofeachmagnitudecanbeinferredfromtheG-Rrelation.Atthesametune,theactualannualoccurrencerateofearthquakesofhighermagnitudescanbecalculatedfromhistoricalearthquakes(1300-1993)recordedinthesameregion.Itseemsthatbothresultsarealmostthesame.Therefore,therateofeventsofhighermagnitudescanbeobtainedbyusingmicroseismicitydatawhentheproperregionisselected.However,twopointsshouldbenoticed:(1)Themethodcanonlygivetheannualoccurrencerateinaseismicitysystemandestimatethewholesituationofthesystem.(2)Whenthereisaverylargeearthquakeinandneartheperiodinwhichthemicroseismicitydataareapplied,theactualoccurrencerateofthesystem,includingthislargerearthquake,cannotbeobtainedbythismethod.
简介:Thispaperfocusesonhowtobuildthemodelofprecisionfirehazarddivisionsinthelevelofforestresourcessub-compartment.Basedon3DGIStechnologyandcharacteristicsofforestfiresincollectiveforestofsouthernChina,thisstudyutilizedLin’anCity,ZhejiangProvinceastheexperimentalarea.Forestfirefactorsweredividedinto11indexesfromthethreecategories(socialandeconomicfactors,forestrycharacteristics,andmeteorologicalcharacteristics)andweightedforanalysis.Next,threeeigenvectors(oneforeachcategory)werecreatedtobuildanonlinearmathematicalmodelcalledprecisionfirehazarddivisionsforforests.Then,themodelwasusedtooptimizeandtestforestfirehazarddivisionswiththeleastsquares.Resultsshowedthatexperimentalandtheoreticalvaluesoferrorwerelessthan0.1.Thus,intheexperimentalareathismodelandthefireoccurrencehistorymatched.
简介:SynthesizedPoissonandrenewalmodelanditsapplicationinseismichazardanalysisHan-YaoCHEN(陈汉尧)andYu-XianHU(胡聿贤)(InstituteofGeophys...
简介:历史的地震活动在北方中国区域是强烈的。然而,自从Ms6.2地震,没有中号的地震在Zhangbei区域在这个区域发生在最后十年在1998。中等、强烈的地震的静止在诺思中国是相当突出的。在这篇论文,我们在1970~使用小地震记录2009学习背景在北方中国区域的地震活动。地震参数的空间分布被介绍,包括b值,最大的大小和M/6的地震的年度出现概率。0。我们有低b值的结果表演区域在太行山块在山西裂缝,位于Tancheng-Lujiang差错地区的Suqian区域和Shijiazhuang区域包括Yuncheng区域。我们seismicity的合成空间模式上的分析显示在北方中国区域的seismicity被深结构的地区性的动态因素主要影响。
简介:ThepotentialfordevastatingearthquakesintheHimalayanorogenyhaslongbeenrecognized.The2015MW7.8Gorkha,Nepalearthquakehasheightenedthelikelihoodthatmajorearthquakeswilloccuralongthisorogenicbeltinthefuture.Reliableseismichazardassessmentisacriticalelementindevelopmentofpolicyforseismichazardmitigationandriskreduction.Inthisstudy,weconductprobabilisticseismichazardassessmentusingthreedifferentseismogenicsourcemodels(smoothedgridded,linear,andarealsources)basedonthecomplicatedtectonicsofthestudyarea.Twosetsofgroundmotionpredictionequationsarecombinedinastandardlogictreebytakingintoaccounttheepistemicuncertaintiesinhazardestimation.Long-termslipratesandpaleoseismicrecordsarealsoincorporatedinthelinearsourcemodel.Peakgroundaccelerationandspectralaccelerationat0.2sand1.0sfor2%and10%probabilitiesofexceedancein50yearsareestimated.Theresultingmapsshowsignificantspatialvariationinseismichazardlevels.TheregionoftheLesserHimalayaisfoundtohavehighseismichazardpotential.AlongtheMainHimalayanThrustfromeasttowestbeneaththeMainCentralThrust,largeearthquakeshaveoccurredregularlyinhistory;hazardvaluesinthisregionarefoundtobehigherthanthoseshownonexistinghazardmaps.Inessence,thecombinationoflongspanearthquakecatalogsandmultipleseismogenicsourcemodelsgivesimprovedseismichazardconstraintsinNepal.
简介:在美国,高速公路桥的当前的负担和电阻因素设计(LRFD)说明是由于典型死了的负担和经常的车辆的负担的行动考虑桥部件的失败可能性的基于可靠性的明确的表达。各种各样的极端负担效果例如地震和容器碰撞,没在一样的基于可靠性的站台上被考虑。自从这些极端负担,是时间变量,把他们与相结合经常,nonextreme负担是重要挑战。设计限制州方程的数字能基于这些失败可能性从实际应用的看法点不现实地大、不必要。基于AASHTO州的桥工程师,的意见许多负担联合处于他们的州是不足道的。这份报纸描述一个标准的明确的表达包括仅仅必要负担联合建立设计限制州。这个标准被为时间不变的可能的所有和改变负担联合并且划分成他们部分术语的时间检验全部的失败可能性建立。然后,重要负担联合能是容易地坚定的份量上。
简介:Theauthorsstudythestructure,functionsanddataorganizationforthehazardanalysissystemofurbanpost-earthquakefireontheplatformofGIS.Ageneralhazardanalysismodelofthepost-earthquakefireispresented.TakingShanghaicentraldistrictasbackground,asystemforhazardanalysisofthepost-earthquakefireandauxili-arydecision-againstfireisdeveloped.