Theworldeconomywassuffereddramaticallyin2008,becauseofthefinan-cialturnaoil.Itispredictedthatinthenextyears,Chinaeconomicgrowthwillslowdown,and2009wouldnotbethebottom,buttheeconomyfunda-mentalisstillhealthy.Asoft'U'turncanbeexpectedinthefuture.Macro-economyTwoofChinaeconomicgrowthpillarengines,exportsectorandreal-estateindustryhavebeensignificantlyinfluencedbytheglobalfinancialcrisis,trendsofthistwosectorsshowthatChinacouldnotbeanexceptioninthiseconomictur-moil.Theglobaleconomicturmoilhasasignificantnegativeimpactontheexportgrowth,anddomesticimportsalsoslowdownsincedomesticdemandhasbeenweaken,(SeeChart1)Asoneofthepillarindustry,realestateindustrysufferedalotundernationaldeclinelastyear,withanationalaveragedropof4.7percentonhousingprice.(SeeChart2)Domesticfixed-assetinvestmentgrowthhasalsosloweddown.Chinabusinesscyclesignalindexshowsthatthemacro-economicshasbeenslowingdown,andaccordingtothehistoryofChina'seconomy,thisdownturnwouldlastatleast3years,2009wouldnotbethecyclebottom.(SeeChart3)Thebusinesscyclesignalindexisdecliningfrom117.3inMayto94.7inOcto-ber,thefirsttimetodropunder100from1992,meaningthemacroeconomichasbeenslowingdown,butisstillinthestablezonesofar.LookingbackatthehistoryoverChina'spast30years,economicgrowthcycli-caldownturnwouldlastatleast3years.StandardCharteredBank'slatestreportreducedChinaGDPforecastfor2008to9.6percent,apoor7.9percentin2009,andevenlowerat7.1percentfor2010.(SeeChart4)ChinaisbelievedtobeshieldedfromchaoslikeUS,andfinancialwoeshavelimitedimpactonChina.Thecountryhadrichresourcereserves,greatmarketpo-tential,vigorousenterprisesandthegovernmenthadstrongmacro-controlabilities.Themajorindicatorsareinhealthycondition,whichcanhelpChinagovernmenttofighttheeconomyturmoilin2009.
