简介：Basedonthesystemdynamics(SD)model,thispaperputsforwardaquantitativemethodtoevaluatetheearthquakeemergencyplaninChina.Firstly,weanalyzethedisastersystemstructureandthecontentofplan.Usingtheanalysisresults,weestablishasystemdynamics(SD)modelandthencarryoutitssimulation.Accordingtothesimulationresults,therescueeffectusingtheplanof2012isbetterthanthatof2006.Fromthepolicylevel,inordertoreduceloss,governmentshouldmaintaincommunicationsmoothly,improvetheabilityofselfandmutualhelp,strengthenthemanagementofpublicopinion,andpaymoreattentiontosecondarydisasters.

简介：AhybridapproachofDEA(dataenvelopmentanalysis)andTOPSIS(techniquefororderperformance(preference)bysimilaritytoidealsolution)isproposedformultiplecriteriadecisionanalysisinemergencymanagement.TwoDEA-basedoptimizationmodelsareconstructedtofacilitateidentifyingparameterinformationregardingcriterionweightsandquantifyingqualitativecriteriainTOPSIS.AnemergencymanagementcasestudyutilizingdatafromtheEmergencyManagementAustralia(EMA)DisastersDatabaseisprovidedtodemonstratethefeasibilityoftheproposedanalysisprocedure.

简介：Weconsideranewsvendorproblemwithprice-dependentdemand,ineitheradditiveormultiplicativeformat.Thenewsvendorhastwomodesofpurchasing:regularorderingatthebeginningofthesellingseasonandemergencyordering(iftherealizeddemandexceedstheinitialorderquantity)attheendofthesellingseason.Bystochasticcomparisons,wesystematicallyinvestigatetheeffectsofdemandmagnitudeanddemandrandomnessonpricingandorderingquantitydecisionsaswellasexpectedprofitofthenewsvendor,underbothusualstochasticorder(firstorderstochasticdominance)andconvexorder(lessvariable).Ourkeyfindingsinclude:(i)incontrarytothecasewherepriceisexogenous,astochasticallylargerdemandshockmayevenleadtoalowerorderquantity;(ii)astochasticallylargerdemandshockleadstoahigherpricefortheadditivedemandcase,butmayleadtoalowerpriceforthemultiplicativedemandcase;(iii)astochasticallylargerdemandshockleadstoahigherexpectedprofitforbothdemandmodels;(iv)ingeneral,alessvariabledemandleadstoahigherexpectedprofitforbothdemandmodels;andfurthermore,alessvariabledemandshockhasnoeffectonpricefortheadditivedemandmodel,butleadstoahigherpriceforthemultiplicativedemandmodel.Theimplicationsofallthesefindingsforpricingandorderquantityarediscussedindetail.

简介：Inthispaper,weconsideranewsvendormodelinwhicharisk-aversemanagerfacesastochasticprice-dependentdemandineitheranadditiveoramultiplicativeform.Anemergencypurchaseoptionisallowedaftertherealizationofdemandtosatisfytheunitsthatareshort.Byadoptingconditionalvalue-at-risk(CVaR)asthedecisioncriterion,weaimtoinvestigatetheoptimalpricingandorderingdecisions,andtheeffectsofparameterchangesinsuchasetting.Weprovidesufficientconditionsfortheuniquenessoftheoptimalpolicyforbothdemandmodels.Weperformcomparativestaticsanalysistoshowhowtheoptimalpricingandorderingdecisionbehaveswhenchangingparameters.WealsocompareourresultswiththoseofthenewsvendorwithageneralutilityfunctionandwithCVaRcriterionunderlostsalesassumption.Ourkeyresultsinclude:(i)Forbothdemandmodels,theoptimalsellingpriceisdecreasinginriskaversion.Hence,theoptimalpriceofarisk-aversenewsvendorisnotgreaterthantheoptimalpriceofarisk-neutralnewsvendor.(ii)Incontrarytothelostsalescase,forthemultiplicativedemandmodel,theoptimalorderquantitymaynotbemonotonicinriskaversion.Consequently,theoptimalrisk-averseorderquantitymaybelowerorhigherthantheoptimalrisk-neutralcounterpart.(iii)Fortheadditivemodel,theoptimalorderquantityisstrictlyincreasingintheemergencypurchaseprice,whileforthemultiplicativemodeltheoptimalorderquantityhasnosuchamonotonicproperty.Somenumericalexamplesareconductedtoverifyourclaimsandgainmoreinsightsabouttherisk-aversedecision-makingbehaviors.

简介：在这篇论文，一条新决策途径为多属性被建议属性重量是未知的大组紧急情况决策问题和专家偏爱信息被概括珍视间隔的trapezoidal表示模糊数字(GITFN)。第一，在GITFN之间的类似公式的度被介绍。第二，不同选择的专家偏爱信息经由模糊聚类方法被聚类进几聚集。当聚类继续，组偏爱一致性的一个索引被介绍保证聚类的效果，然后不同选择的组偏爱信息被获得。第三，TOPSIS方法被用来评价选择。最后，一个例子被举显示出这条途径的可行性和有效性。这些方法能保证组偏爱的一致性度，因此，紧急情况反应活动的决定效率能被改进。