简介：Thetransportationindustryisanessentialsectorforcarbonemissionsmitigation.ThispaperfirstlyusedtheLMDI(LogarithmicMeanDivisiaIndex)decompositionmethodtoestablishfactorsdecompositionmodelonChina’stransportationcarbonemission.Then,aquantitativeanalysiswasperformedtostudythefactorsinfluencingChina’stransportationcarbonemissionsfrom1991to2008,whichareidentifiedastransportationenergyefficiency,transportationstructureandtransportationdevelopment.Theresultsshowedthat:(1)Theimpactoftransportationdevelopmentontransportationcarbonemissionsshowedpullingfunction.Itscontributionvaluetocarbonemissionsremainedathighgrowthsince1991andshowedanexponentialgrowthtrend.(2)Theimpactoftransportationstructureontransportationcarbonemissionsshowedpromotingfunctioningeneral,butitsroleinpromotingcarbonemissionsdecreasedyearbyyear.Andwiththecontinuousoptimizationoftransportationstructure,thepromotingeffectdecreasedgraduallyandshowedtheinversed"U"trend.(3)Theimpactoftransportationenergyefficiencyontransportationcarbonemissionsshowedafunctionofinhibitionbeforepulling.Inordertopredictthepotentialofcarbonemissionreduction,threescenarioswereset.Analysisofthescenariosshowedthatifgreaterintensityemissionreductionmeasuresaretaken,thecarbonemissionswillreduceby31.01milliontonsby2015andby48.81milliontonsby2020.