摘要
ByapplyingtwononlinearGrangercausalitytestingmethodsandrollingwindowstrat-egytoexploretherelationshipbetweenspeculativeactivitiesandcrudeoilprices,theunidirectionalGrangercausalityfromspeculativeactivitiestoreturnsofcrudeoilpricesduringthehighpricephaseisdiscovered.ItisprovedthatspeculativeactivitiesdidcontributetohighcrudeoilpricesaftertheAsianfinancialcrisisandOPEC'soutputcutin1998.TheunidirectionalGrangercausalityfromreturnsofcrudeoilpricestospeculativeactivitiesissignificantingeneral.Butafter2000,withthesharpriseincrudeoilprices,thisunidirectionalGrangercausalitybecameacomplexnonlinearrelationship,whichcannotbedetectedbyanylinearGrangercausalitytest.
出版日期
2009年04月14日(中国期刊网平台首次上网日期,不代表论文的发表时间)