A Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecast Based on the Breeding Growth Mode and Associated Optimization of Precipitation Forecast-中国期刊网

摘要 Aconvection-allowingensembleforecastexperimentonasqualllinewasconductedbasedonthebreedinggrowthmode(BGM).Meanwhile,theprobabilitymatchedmean(PMM)andneighborhoodensembleprobability(NEP)methodswereusedtooptimizetheassociatedprecipitationforecast.Theensembleforecastpredictedtheprecipitationtendencyaccurately,whichwasclosertotheobservationthaninthecontrolforecast.Forheavyrainfall,theprecipitationcenterproducedbytheensembleforecastwasalsobetter.TheFractionsSkillScore(FSS)resultsindicatedthattheensemblemeanwasskillfulinlightrainfall,whilethePMMproducedbetterprobabilitydistributionofprecipitationforheavyrainfall.Preliminaryresultsdemonstratedthatconvection-allowingensembleforecastcouldimproveprecipitationforecastskillthroughprovidingvaluableprobabilityforecasts.Itisnecessarytoemploynewmethods,suchasthePMMandNEP,togenerateprecipitationprobabilityforecasts.Nonetheless,thelackofspreadandtheoverpredictionofprecipitationbytheensemblemembersarestillproblemsthatneedtobesolved.

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A Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecast Based on the Breeding Growth Mode and Associated Optimization of Precipitation Forecast

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A Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecast Based on the Breeding Growth Mode and Associated Optimization of Precipitation Forecast

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