PROCESS OF TRANSITION BETWEEN COLD AND WARM PERIODS AND ITS PREDICTION-中国期刊网

摘要 Theoscillationofmulti-timescalesandtheprocessoftransitionbetweencoldandwarmperiodsovermostpartsofChinaandits6regions(theNortheast,NorthChina,ChangjiangRiverValley,SouthChina,theSouthwest,theNorthwest)wereanalyzedwithwavelettransformationandbycomputingthevariancesofthewaveletcomponentsforthetemperaturegradeseriesduringJanuary191ItoFebruary2001,Thepredictionmodelforcoldandwarmperiodshasbeendevelopedandthetrendofcoldandwarmchangeinthecoming10yearsispredicted.Theresultsshowthattheoscillationwithperiodsofaround30-40yearswasthestrongestinthelast100yearsandthe3-yearoscillationinbothwinterandsummerwasalsostronger,especiallyinwinter.Thetransitiontimeofcoldandwarmperiodsintermsofwintermeandidnotcoincidewiththatofannualmean,butthedifferencebetweensummermeanandannualmeanisless.Theprocessesoftransitionof6regionsaresomewhatdifferent,theirmaincharacteristicsarethatthebeginningyearofsignificantwarmingfor1980sto1990swasverydifferentforthesouthernandthenorthernpartofChina.Itisfoundthatthestrongeroscillationwith3-yearperiodcausescoolinginNortheastChinainrecentseveralwinters.Theexperimentalpredictionsshowthatthemodelsusedinthepapercanprojectthemajortransitionbetweenhighandlowtemperatureperiods.

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PROCESS OF TRANSITION BETWEEN COLD AND WARM PERIODS AND ITS PREDICTION

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PROCESS OF TRANSITION BETWEEN COLD AND WARM PERIODS AND ITS PREDICTION

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